На 8% выросло производство пива в январе к АППГ, но это не повод для оптимизма

ПИВО

Как известно, с 1 января 2016 года ставки акцизного налога на пиво увеличены в два раза – до 2,48 грн/л. Тем не менее, производство пива увеличилось в измерении январь-январь 2015-2016 г.г.

То что, Регулятор, нагнувший пивоваров двойным ростом акцизов, был прав? Не обвалится рынок. А прогнозы аналитиков о падении продаж пива в текущем году на 18-20% — не более, чем миф для противодействия прогрессивным действиям МинФина по увеличению наполнения казны?

Отнюдь. Правильный аналитик должен любить несезонные для пивоваров месяца: с октября по февраль, март. В это время, пива производится[1] относительно не много, но можно довольно точно мерять – как те или иные регулирующие инициативы повлияли на бизнес. Жара, как сильный стимулятор роста потребления исключается из анализа. А синоптики, как известно, ошибаются только раз. Но, каждый день. Поэтому, я предпочитаю сравнительный анализ в не сезон, чтобы понимать, на какую базу дополнительно наложится негатив от роста акциза.

Не смотря на уже возросший акциз, цены на полке в магазинах преимущественно не увеличились. Понимая, что с января отчислять в казну с акциза придется значительно больше, до конца прошлого года пивовары усердно «трамбовали» дистрибьюторов, дочиста выметая свои склады. Производителей можно понять. Ведь этот налог платится с первой реализации, а расти на полке в цене — очень не выгодно. В массовом сегменте продаж именно цена является преимущественным фактором, определяющим лояльность к бренду. Обидно, но Украина далеко не «пивная» страна. Это реальность.

Итак, в январе покупатель еще «не прочувствовал» акциз на своем кошельке. Однако, падение покупательной способности, введение 5% акцизного налога на реализацию и «прелести» приравнивания пива к алкоголю в регулировании оборота пива – основные факторы, влияние которых можно оценить.

 

Октябрь-январь 2014/15 произведено 52,8 млн. дал. пива. Аналогичный период 2015/16 г.г. – 48,5 млн. дал. Относительное падение производства составило 8,1%.

 

Если в годовом измерении, грубо и в реалиях 2014 года оценить 8,1% в деньгах, то «радости трезвенников» от «алкоголь=пиво» обходятся госказне в 1,1 млрд. грн. потерь от совокупных отчислений отраслевиков и их смежников. А ведь с потеплением, постепенно, но до полной и даже с лихвой компенсации, переложится на потребителя новый акциз. Поэтому, рынок вполне выйдет на экспертные прогнозы.

Относительный рост производства пива в январе обеспечили два лидера рынка – САН ИнБев Украина и Карлсберг Украина (Carlsberg Ukraine).

 

В объемах производства 2014-го года, январский объем «навара» пива выглядит более, чем бедно – 4,17%.

 

Т.е., вроде бы и не показательно.

Однако, даже этого достаточно, чтобы выявить новую и неприятную тенденцию. Средние пивовары, которые в прошлом году на фоне null демонстрировали наиболее ощутимый рост – прошли январь с самым большим минусом. И причина здесь в том, что они лишились многих своих дистрибьюторов, которые кроме пива не занимались поставками крепкого алкоголя. Они, как и минипивовары, не могут оплатить стоимость оптовой лицензии – 500 тыс. грн. в год. Если на сезонный период, отдельным еще интересно покупать лицензию, то во время резкого падения спроса – это разрешение не интересно. А потому, дистрибьюторы и прикрывают свой бизнес.

 

Первый заместитель Министра финансовВ завершение цитата бывшего (к моему глубокому сожалению) первого заместителя Министра Финансов Игоря Уманского из интервью Украинской правде.

— УП: Минфин сделал ставку на проверенные методы — повышение акцизов. В 2016 году планируется собрать на 23 млрд грн больше, чем в прошлом.

— ИУ: Тут та же ситуация, что и с налогом на прибыль. Математически — сходится, практически — нет. Не учтены простые вещи — снижение покупательской способности населения и естественное падение «белых» продаж, в том числе из-за роста теневого рынка по причине повышения налоговых ставок.

Прогноз по акцизу с вино-водочной группы и табачных изделий выглядит слишком оптимистично. Риски недобора колоссальны. Сложно дать точный прогноз, но, думаю, тоже не менее 5-7 млрд грн. 

 

Правильный чиновник. Жаль, что такие долго не выдерживают работать в «сенпентарии единомышленников-реформаторов».



[1] Конечно, правильнее оперировать вторичными продажами. Но мерять их честно – пока никто не умеет, к сожалению. Но производство ориентируют с учетом прогнозной потребности рынка. Поэтому, с определенным временным лагом сваренное пиво уравняется спросом.

Игорь Товкач

Игорь Товкач

Независимый эксперт рынка алкогольных напитков

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